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Reference List selected by dr. Craig Allen

Note:  These references describe how anthropogenic climate change is driving more extreme hotter droughts, high-severity wildfires, and forest die-offs at three hierarchical spatial scales: 

1) the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico; 
2) western North America;  and
3) globally. 

 

  • Abatzoglou, J.T., A.P. Williams. 2016. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 113:11770-11775.
  • Allen, C.D. 1989.  Changes in the Landscape of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico.  Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, CA. 346 pp.
  • Allen, C.D., and D.D. Breshears.  1998.  Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A. 95:14839-14842.
  • Allen, C.D., + 8 co-authors. 2002.  Ecological restoration of Southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: A broad perspective.  Ecological Applications 12:1418-1433.
  • Allen, C.D.  2002.  Lots of lightning and plenty of people: An ecological history of fire in the upland Southwest. Chapter 5 (pages 143-193) in: T.R. Vale (ed.), Fire, Native Peoples, and the Natural Landscape.  Island Press, Covelo, CA. 315 pp.
  • Allen, C.D.  2005.  A thousand years in the life of the Bandelier landscape.  Chapter 2 (pp.11-18) In: R.P. Powers (ed.), The Peopling of Bandelier:  New Approaches to the Archeology of the Pajarito Plateau.  School of American Research Press, Santa Fe, NM. 142 pp.
  • Allen, C.D.  2007.  Interactions across spatial scales among forest dieback, fire, and erosion in northern New Mexico landscapes.  Ecosystems 10:797-808.
  • Allen, C.D., + 4 co-authors. 2008.  Paired charcoal and tree-ring records of high-frequency fire from two New Mexico bog sites.  International Journal of Wildland Fire 17:115-130.
  • Allen, C.D., + 19 co-authors. 2010.  A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests.  Forest Ecology and Management 259:660-684. 
  • Allen, C.D.  2014.  Forest ecosystem reorganization underway in the Southwestern US – Does this foreshadow widespread forest changes in the Anthropocene?  Pages 103-123 In: V.A. Sample + 2 eds. Forest Conservation and Management in the Anthropocene: Conference Proceedings. Proceedings RMRS-P-71. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. 494 p. Online at: https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/57327.
  • Allen, C.D., D.D. Breshears, and N.G. McDowell.  2015.  On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene.  Ecosphere 6(8):129. doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1.  55 p.
  • Allen, C.D. 2019. “A Shrubbier Future: Forest Transformation in the Eastern Jemez Mountains”. Essay, pp. 85-88 in: Philip Metcalf & Patricia Galagan, Fire Ghosts.  George F. Thompson Publishing, Staunton, VA. 160 p. ISBN: 978-1-938086-71-7.    
  • Allen, C.D.  2022.  Climate change: Ecosystem responses and feedbacks to water resources in New Mexico.  Chapter IV, pp. 42-61 in: Dunbar, N.W., D.S. Gutzler, and F. Phillips (eds.), Climate Change in New Mexico over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources.  New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources. Online at: https://geoinfo.nmt.edu/ClimatePanel/report/
  • Breshears, D.D., + co-authors. 2005.  Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change type drought.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A. 102:15144-15148.
  • Batllori, E., + 36 co-authors. 2020. Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117:29720-29729.
  • Bentz, B.J., + 8 co-authors. 2010. Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. BioScience 60:602-613.
  • Coop, J.D., S.A. Parks, S.R. McClernan, L.M. Holsinger. 2016. Influences of prior wildfires on vegetation response to subsequent fire in a reburned Southwestern landscape. Ecological Applications 26:346-354.
  • Coop, J.D., + 22 co-authors. 2020. Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes. BioScience 70:659-673.
  • Davis, K.T., + 8 co-authors. 2019. Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116:6193-6198.
  • Dewar J.J., + 7 co-authors. 2021. Valleys of fire: Historical fire regimes of forest-grassland ecotones across the montane landscape of the Valles Caldera National Preserve, New Mexico, USA.  Landscape Ecology 36:331–352. 
  • Field, J.P., + 5 co-authors. 2021.  Forest management under megadrought: Urgent needs at finer-scale and higher-intensity.  Frontiers in Forests and Global Change 3:502669.  https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2020.502669.
  • Grant, G.E., C.L. Tague, and C.D. Allen.  2013.  Watering the forest for the trees: an emerging priority for managing water in forest landscapes.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11:314-321.
  • Guiterman, C.H., + 4 co-authors.  2018.  Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico.  Ecosystems.  doi:10.1007/s10021-017-0192-2. 
  • Guiterman, C.H., + 27 co-authors. 2020. Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses. Fire Ecology 18, Article number 6.
  • Hammond, W., + 9 co-authors. 2022. A global hotter-drought fingerprint on Earth’s tree die-off sites reveals how warming extremes drive accelerating forest risks.  Nature Communications.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2.
  • Hartmann, H., + 10 co-authors. 2022.  Climate change risks to global forest health – emergence of unexpected events of elevated tree mortality world-wide.  Annual Review of Plant Biology 73:25.1–25.30.  https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-102820-012804.
  • Johnstone, J.F. , + 3 co-authors. 2016.  Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience.  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14:369-378. 
  • Jones, M.W., + 15 co-authors. Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change. Reviews of Geophysics. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726
  • Jump, A.S., + 7 co-authors. 2017. Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback.  Global Change Biology 23: 3742-3757. doi:10.1111/gcb.13636.
  • Keyser, A.R., + 4 co-authors. 2020. Simulated increases in fire activity reinforce shrub conversion in a Southwestern US forest. Ecosystems. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-020-00498-4
  • Margolis, E.Q., T.W. Swetnam, and C.D. Allen. 2007.  A stand-replacing fire history in upper montane forests of the southern Rocky Mountains.  Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37:2227-2241.
  • McDowell, N.G., + 19 co-authors. 2020.  Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world. Science.  DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz9463. 
  • Raffa, K.F., + 6 co-authors. 2008. Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: the dynamics of bark beetle eruptions. BioScience 58: 501-517.
  • Roos, C.I., C.H. Guiterman. 2021. Dating the origins of persistent oak shrubfields in northern New Mexico using soil charcoal and dendrochronology. The Holocene 31:1212-1220.
  • Stevens J.T., + 20 co-authors. 2021. Tamm Review: Postfire landscape management in frequent-fire conifer forests of the southwestern United States.  Forest Ecology and Management. doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119678.
  • Swetnam, T.W., + 5 co-authors. 2016.  Multi-scale perspectives of fire, climate and humans in western North America and the Jemez Mountains, U.S.A.  Philosophical Transactions, Royal Society B.  doi:10.1098/rstb.2015.0168.
  • Tillery, A.C., L.D. McFadden, and C.D. Allen.  2022.  Landscape change, fire and erosion.  Chapter VI, pp. 78-92 in: Dunbar, N.W., D.S. Gutzler, and F. Phillips (eds.), Climate Change in New Mexico over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources.  New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources. Online at: https://geoinfo.nmt.edu/ClimatePanel/report/
  • Touchan, R., C.D. Allen, and T.W. Swetnam. 1996. Fire History and Climatic Patterns in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of the Jemez Mountains, Northern New Mexico. Pp. 33-46 in: C.D. Allen (ed.), Fire Effects in Southwestern Forests: Proceedings of the Second La Mesa Fire Symposium. USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-GTR-286. Fort Collins, CO.  216 pp.
  • Touchan, R., C. Woodhouse, D. Meko, and C.D. Allen. 2011.  Millennial precipitation reconstruction for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, reveals changing drought signal. International Journal of Climatology 31:896-906.
  • Turco, M., + 8 co-authors. The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather. Science Advances 12. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adx9845.
  • Williams, A.P., + 6 co-authors. 2010.  Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in southwestern North America.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A. 107:21289-21294.
  • Williams, A.P., + 12 co-authors. 2013. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nature Climate Change 3:292-297.
  • Williams, A.P., B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon. 2022. Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021
  • Nature Climate Change 12 (3), 232-234.
  • Wion, A.P., + 5 co-authors. 2024.  Multi-decadal vegetation transformations of a New Mexico ponderosa pine landscape after severe fires and aerial seeding.  Ecological Applications 34 (6), e3008.  DOI: 10.1002/eap.3008.
  • Wion, A.P., + 6 co-authors. 2026. Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss. 2026. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A.  DOI:10.1073/pnas.2513731123.
  • Yin, C., + 5 co-authors. 2026. Fire weather waves drive extreme fires globally. Communications Earth & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03858-5.
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